Fourteen games into his rookie season, top-overall pick Jameis Winston has put up very good stats. He now has over 3,400 yards passing and has thrown 20 touchdowns. He also has kept his interception numbers down, throwing 12 interceptions, much better than the 18 during his final year at Florida State. While these stats are good, especially for a rookie, he is going to hold back the Buccaneers. Much like we didn't see the Patriots become a dynasty until Drew Bledsoe was replaced and the Lions seem to be held back by Matthew Stafford, quarterbacks like Winston do not bring Super Bowls.
Winston fits the mold of Bledsoe and Stafford because he is a good quarterback that doesn't deserve to be outright replaced, but is never good enough to lead a team by himself. Also, all three were drafted first overall, which puts these teams in the unenviable spot of having to either replace a guy drafted to "save the franchise," which so many teams are so hesitant to do, or continue to have a quarterback that is good-at-best.
The Patriots saw Bledsoe grow from a rough first three seasons, to become a guy worth 20 touchdowns and less than 15 interceptions each season. But Bledsoe was never truly great. His passer rating always was around 80.0, and never higher than 87.7, the year following his Super Bowl appearance. His numbers were never more than good, and he just couldn't get New England over the hump the way that Tom Brady did once he got comfortable in his role as starter.
Now, we see the Detroit Lions in the same boat with Stafford. Stafford had one season where his stats were incredible: 2011. That season, he threw for more than 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns. Stafford is always good for about 25 touchdowns and 17 interceptions and throws for plenty of yards. The problem is he is rarely the the best player on the team, and there are plenty of better quarterbacks in the NFL right now. To put Stafford in the same class as Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton or Ben Roethlisberger would be difficult, he fits closer to Jay Cutler, Philip Rivers and Joe Flacco.
Winston's other main issue is that he pads his stats. Winston set a career-high in yards during his team's 31-23 loss to the Rams on Thursday, when he threw for 363 yards and two touchdowns. But the team was down 28-6 due to his poor first half play. Stafford has done this his entire career, disappoint for long stretches of a game, then throw two touchdowns at the end when his team has no chance. Winston is a great competitor, but it doesn't excuse his padding stats, it's still just that.
Winston seems like he will have nearly identical career stats to Stafford and maybe even Bledsoe. Unfortunately for the Buccaneers, that will not be good enough. They will need impeccable drafting and stingy free agent moves to build a team that can rely on Winston to win a Super Bowl. It will be tough when he demands a contract, as his play will not truly merit that contract.
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