One of the hottest topics heading into the 2015 NFL season was the comparison of Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, the top two picks of the draft, respectively. As we review the year, now is the time to ask: did Winston or Mariota have the better rookie year overall?
I think if you took a poll, the majority of people would lean toward Winston.
He played for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and they had a, while not good, more successful year than the Tennessee Titans (Mariota's team). The Bucs went 6-10; the Titans were 3-13. Winston also ha more scores on the year, but let's take a broader look at the numbers.
Winston:
- 16 games played
- 312/535
- 58.3% completion
- 4,042 passing yards
- 22 TDs (4.1% TD rate)
- 15 INTs (2.8% INT rate)
- 27 times sacked
- 84.2 passer rating (58.6 QBR)
- 213 rushing yards
- 6 rushing TDs
Those aren't bad numbers, and they certainly are used frequently in defending Winston as having the better rookie year and arguably being the offensive rookie of the year. But let's take a look at Mariota's before discussing any further.
Matiota:
- 12 games played
- 230/370
- 62.2% completion
- 2,818 passing yards
- 19 TDs (5.1% TD rate)
- 10 INTs (2.7% INT rate)
- 38 times sacked
- 91.5 passer rating (61.0 QBR)
- 252 rushing yards (42 receiving)
- 2 rushing TDs (1 receiving)
As you can see, Mariota was no doubt a more efficient passer on the year. He had a much more respectable completion percentage, passer rating and QBR than Winston. If not for missing four games due to injury (and not being able to finish a couple of others), Mariota arguably would've had a several more touchdown passes at least, as well as a similar number of yards and turnovers.
What is most impressive for Mariota's case to have had a better rookie season is the supporting cast of each player.
The Titans have Kendall Wright, Dorial Green-Beckham, Justin Hunter and Delanie Walker as his main pass targets. In the backfield, they used a combination of Bishop Sankey, Antonio Andrews and David Cobb. The offensive line allowed Mariota to be sacked 38 times in less than 12 full games (and gave up another 13 sacks when he wasn't playing, for a horrid mark of 51 on the season).
The Buccaneers have Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, Adam Humphries and Austin Seferian-Jenkins as their top pass targets. In the backfield, they have a 1-2 punch of Doug Martin and Charles Sims. The offensive line only allowed Winston to be sacked 27 times all year long in 16 full games (less than twice per game).
Putting this all together, Winston had much better receivers, running backs and a fantastic pass-blocking line in front of him. Evidenced by the 2,000-plus yards rushing for the team this year, they're not too bad at run blocking either. All in all, Winston had an excellent supporting cast all year and only scored 28 total touchdowns as they won only six games.
Mariota, on the other hand, had below average help at wideout, mediocre running backs and a porous offensive line in front of him. His only standout weapon was his tight end, Walker.
Even with all of the deficiencies around him, Mariota was more efficient, scored more frequently and was simply more consistent than Winston all year.
While he's not really in the running for Rookie of the Year because of the injuries and the award is very much based upon statistics, to say that Winston definitely had a more impressive year than Mariota would simply be false. The Oregon Duck product had an excellent rookie year given the circumstances, and his future is bright.
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